|
09:00 to 10:00 |
Suryachandra Rao (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India) |
Forecasts |
|
|
|
10:00 to 11:00 |
Parthasarathy Mukhopadhyay (Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Berhampur, India) |
Extreme precipitation: Understanding and forecast challenge In this talk, the moist physical processes associated with extreme precipitation will be discussed and the lack of representation of moist dynamics in numerical model will be emphasized. It will be shown with specific example the current status of forecasting extreme by NWP models and also by data driven models. The talk will throw insights on the gaps that can be addressed for possible improvement of moist dynamics vis-a-vis the fidelity of models in capturing extreme precipitation
|
|
|
|
11:30 to 12:30 |
Subimal Ghosh (Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, India) |
Land Atmosphere Interactions in India (Onine) This presentation will delve into the intricate dynamics of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISM), focusing on the crucial role of oceanic and land moisture sources. By synthesizing findings from recent studies, we will explore the complex interplay between atmospheric circulation, oceanic processes, and land-surface conditions that shape the variability of the ISMR. We will present evidence highlighting the dominant influence of moisture transported from the western Indian Ocean on the overall ISM rainfall. Additionally, we will discuss the significant contribution of moisture recycling within the Ganges basin to regional precipitation patterns. Our research has also revealed the importance of land-atmosphere interactions, particularly the role of vegetation cover and soil moisture, in modulating the monsoon system. We will demonstrate the role of human water management, such as irrigation, in shaping monsoon rainfall patterns. By understanding these intricate processes, we aim to improve our ability to predict the onset, intensity, and spatial distribution of the ISM, which has profound implications for water resource management, agriculture, and disaster risk reduction in South Asia.
|
|
|
|
14:00 to 16:00 |
Abhnil Prasad (University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia) |
Tutorial CMIP models |
|
|
|
16:30 to 17:30 |
M Rajeevan (Atria University, Bengaluru, India) |
Challenges in Monsoon Prediction In this plenary lecture, I will discuss various aspects of seasonal and decadal monsoon forecasting for the Indian monsoon. In the initial years, the seasonal forecasts for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) are based on statistical methods using predictors representing the monsoon teleconnections. In 2017, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) introduced the statistical ensemble forecasting system, which was used by IMD for operational forecasts. With the rapid advancements in coupled modelling strategies and tools, the seasonal forecasts for monsoon rainfall are now produced using coupled ocean-atmosphere models. In 2021, IMD introduced multi-model ensemble forecasts based on different dynamical models. These models have shown more skill compared to the current statistical models. However, the current seasonal forecast skill is still far below the potential predictability. The ways in which the seasonal forecasts can be further improved will be discussed. Since the monsoon precipitation exhibits significant multi-decadal variability, attempts are being made to predict the decadal variability of the monsoon precipitation. However, recent results suggest that the decadal prediction for south Asian monsoon region is currently not very skilful.
|
|
|
